Subscribe
Chesapeake Bay Summer Forecast: 2008
For the past three years local scientists have collaborated with EcoCheck (NOAA-UMCES partnership) to forecast Chesapeake Bay summer ecological conditions. Ecological forecasts provide resource managers with information that can be used to guide restoration, enable proactive communication of Bay conditions, and help direct research activities.
This year's forecast focuses on two important elements of Bay health — dissolved oxygen and harmful algal blooms. The dissolved oxygen forecasts predict the volume of both anoxic (dissolved oxygen levels ≤0.2 mg·L‑1) and hypoxic (DO ≤2mg·L‑1) water in the Bay's mainstem. The harmful algal bloom forecasts predict the occurrence and intensity of Microcystis in the Potomac River and Prorocentrum within the Maryland region of the Bay. Microcystis is a type of cyanobacteria (also referred to as blue-green algae) that when blooming can form a green mat on the water surface. Prorocentrum is a dinoflagellate that when blooming causes the water to turn reddish-brown and form what are called mahogany tides. The Prorocentrum forecast is new in 2008, and is based on methods developed by Jon Anderson from Morgan State University. All forecasts are built upon a foundation of environmental monitoring data gathered over two decades.
Click on the map or indicator icon below for the 2008 summer ecological forecast:
Forecast Overview
Anoxia Forecast
Hypoxia Forecast
(Note: Over the past three summers we forecast changes in aquatic grass cover in three regions of the Bay. Subsequent analysis has shown the accuracy of these forecasts to be low, with only a few of the forecasts matching observations. For this reason we will not be forecasting changes in aquatic grass until the accuracy has improved.)
Acknowledgements
These web pages have been produced in collaboration with members of the Chesapeake Pay Program's Tidal Monitoring and Analysis Workgroup (TMAW). The following individuals are acknowledged for their contributions: Dave Jasinski, Peter Tango (USGS/CBP), Michael Williams (UMCES), Don Scavia (Univ. of Michigan) and Jon Anderson (Morgan State). We would also like to thank Joel Blomquist from USGS for providing the provisional nitrogen loads estimates needed to forecast anoxia and hypoxia.