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Chesapeake Bay Summer Forecast: 2011
For the past several years, Chesapeake Bay scientists have collaborated with EcoCheck (NOAA-UMCES partnership) to forecast Chesapeake Bay summer dissolved oxygen conditions, based on flow and nutrient loading conditions through May. Ecological forecasts provide resource managers with information that can be used to guide restoration, enable proactive communication of Bay conditions, and help direct research activities.
2011 forecasts predict moderate to very poor conditions
In 2010, we provided a new anoxia forecast, which divided the forecast across early summer (June to mid-July) and late summer (mid-July to September). We also provided a July and August hypoxia forecast, along with a separate, July-only hypoxia forecast. These forecasts are generated by different Chesapeake Bay researchers and use different methods. For the second year, we are working with the same researchers on these forecasts. The currently available forecasts are described below.
Anoxia forecast
The 2011 anoxia forecast is supported through current research at Johns Hopkins University, Old Dominion University, UMCES-Horn Point Lab, and the Chesapeake Bay Program. The forecast was divided into early summer and late summer predictions again in 2011, because for the past several years, there has been a noticeable change in anoxic volume following wind events in late June and early July. The late summer anoxia forecast predicts poor to very poor conditions, based on nitrogen loads from January to May.
The early summer forecast uses the same basis of similar, previous anoxia forecasts—nitrogen loads—but adds other elements that may provide a better understanding of anoxia in the mainstem Bay. Specifically, wind direction data and mean sea level are incorporated. The early summer anoxia forecast predicts moderate to poor conditions, based on nitrogen loads from January to April as well as high flow in May.
Hypoxia forecast
For the fifth year in a row, EcoCheck has provided a July hypoxia forecast in collaboration with Don Scavia and his group at the University of Michigan. The July 2011 hypoxia forecast predicts poor to very poor conditions, based on Susquehanna total nitrogen loads from January through May.
A summer (June to September) hypoxia forecast has also been predicted by researchers at the Chesapeake Biological Laboratory (UMCES). The 2011 summer hypoxia forecast predicts very poor conditions, based on Susquehanna flow and loads, chlorophyll a biomass, and wind speed.
Information on NOAA's juvenile striped bass production forecast for 2011 can be found here.
Click on the map or indicator icon below for the 2011 summer ecological forecast:
Forecast Overview
Anoxia Forecast
Hypoxia Forecast
Acknowledgements
The following individuals are acknowledged for their contributions:
Anoxia forecast: Rebecca Murphy (Johns Hopkins University), William Ball (JHU), Malcolm Scully (Old Dominion University), Michael Kemp (UMCES-Horn Point Lab), Jeremy Testa (UMCES-HPL), Jeni Keisman (UMCES-Chesapeake Bay Program).
July hypoxia forecast: Don Scavia and Mary Anne Evans (University of Michigan)
Summer (June to September) hypoxia forecast: Younjoo Lee (CBL-UMCES).
We would also like to thank Joel Blomquist and Mike Langland from USGS for providing the provisional nitrogen loads estimates needed to forecast dissolved oxygen parameters.