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Browse History: Home (2017)

Chesapeake Bay Summer Forecast:

Click on the items below for the 2017 summer forecast indicators:

2017 Forecast dials for July hypoxia, early summer anoxia, and late summer anoxia


For the past several years, Chesapeake Bay scientists have collaborated with the Integration and Application Network to forecast Chesapeake Bay summer dissolved oxygen conditions, based on flow and nutrient loading conditions through May. Ecological forecasts provide resource managers with information that can be used to guide restoration, enable proactive communication of Bay conditions, and help direct research activities.

2017 forecast predicts average to slightly above-average conditions

Hypoxia forecast

The average July hypoxia forecast predicts worse than average conditions for 2017. This forecast is based on Susquehanna River nitrogen loads (January to May). 

Early summer anoxia forecast
The average early (June through mid-July) anoxia forecast predicts average conditions for 2017. This forecast is based on Susquehanna River nitrogen loads (January to April) and May river flow from both the Susquehanna and Potomac Rivers.

Late summer anoxia forecast
The average late (mid-July through September) anoxia forecast predicts worse than average conditions for 2017. This forecast is based on the Susquehanna River nitrogen loads (January to May).

Acknowledgements

The following individuals are acknowledged for their contributions:

Summer hypoxia forecast: Don Scavia and his lab (University of Michigan)
Summer anoxia forecast: Jeremy Testa and Slava Lyubchich (University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science-Chesapeake Biological Lab)

We would also like to thank Joel Blomquist from USGS for providing the provisional nitrogen loads estimates needed to forecast dissolved oxygen parameters.