IAN Seminar Series 2016

The goal of the IAN seminar series is to provide concise, thought-provoking ideas relating to Chesapeake Bay science and management. Short presentations (15 minutes maximum length) are immediately followed by a lunchtime discussion of the topics raised by the presenter. The discussion is summarized and is posted along with a pdf version of the seminar slides. The seminars are captured on video and posted under a Creative Commons license so they can be freely shared.

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DateSpeakerSeminarSeries
Thu 28
Jul
2016
http://ian.umces.edu/seminarseries/
The Chesapeake Atlantis Model: An Adaptive Management Tool for Visualizing Productivity Changes Expected from Workgroup Efforts - Tom Ihde (NOAA) - IAN Seminar Series
2016-07-28T12:00:00-04:00 2016-07-28T13:00:00-04:00
Macknis Room, Chesapeake Bay Program Office, 410 Severn Avenue (Suite 109), Annapolis MD

There have been numerous indicators that there has been progress in improving the water quality indicators for the Chesapeake Bay system. Less clear, are the effects of these water quality improvements on the living resources of this system, or the scale of those effects in comparison to other stressors like changing water temperatures in this region. Similarly, the cumulative effects of multiple, simultaneous stressors in combination with the water quality improvements are difficult to estimate, and there are relatively few tools available with which to accomplish this task. One such tool is an\"end-to- end\" or \"full-system\" modeling approach called \"Atlantis\". The Chesapeake Atlantis Model (CAM) is a deterministic, biogeophysical, production simulation model of the Chesapeake system, designed to provide strategic information on the trade-offs of different management choices, e.g., targeted restoration, ongoing habitat loss due to sea level rise and shoreline hardening, water quality improvement, etc. The spatial modelling approach includes a wide range of system features, the most important of which are: physical forcings of heat, salt, and water movement; predator-prey dynamics; bacteria (and plant) mediated nutrient and chemical cycling; and habitats that not only grow (and decline) over time, but that also serve as refuge for prey species. Expected changes in the Chesapeake system are simulated for 50 years into the future; marsh loss, submerged aquatic vegetation loss, TMDL attainment (for nitrogen and sediment loads), along with temperature increase are simulated separately and in combination, to estimate cumulative effects of these multiple factors, and to determine a dominant driver of change for the Chesapeake. Results from this work suggest that the water temperature increases expected for the Chesapeake system will be a very strong driver of productivity change, and that any work on other factors should consider expected temperature increases as well. Applications of CAM to specific Outcomes and Key Actions of the various CBP Workgroups to support the New Bay Agreement (2014) are also discussed.

Tom Ihde
NOAA
tom.ihde@noaa.gov
The Chesapeake Atlantis Model: An Adaptive Management Tool for Visualizing Productivity Changes Expected from Workgroup Efforts

Science for Citizens
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Abstract

There have been numerous indicators that there has been progress in improving the water quality indicators for the Chesapeake Bay system. Less clear, are the effects of these water quality improvements on the living resources of this system, or the scale of those effects in comparison to other stressors like changing water temperatures in this region. Similarly, the cumulative effects of multiple, simultaneous stressors in combination with the water quality improvements are difficult to estimate, and there are relatively few tools available with which to accomplish this task. One such tool is an"end-to- end" or "full-system" modeling approach called "Atlantis". The Chesapeake Atlantis Model (CAM) is a deterministic, biogeophysical, production simulation model of the Chesapeake system, designed to provide strategic information on the trade-offs of different management choices, e.g., targeted restoration, ongoing habitat loss due to sea level rise and shoreline hardening, water quality improvement, etc. The spatial modelling approach includes a wide range of system features, the most important of which are: physical forcings of heat, salt, and water movement; predator-prey dynamics; bacteria (and plant) mediated nutrient and chemical cycling; and habitats that not only grow (and decline) over time, but that also serve as refuge for prey species. Expected changes in the Chesapeake system are simulated for 50 years into the future; marsh loss, submerged aquatic vegetation loss, TMDL attainment (for nitrogen and sediment loads), along with temperature increase are simulated separately and in combination, to estimate cumulative effects of these multiple factors, and to determine a dominant driver of change for the Chesapeake. Results from this work suggest that the water temperature increases expected for the Chesapeake system will be a very strong driver of productivity change, and that any work on other factors should consider expected temperature increases as well. Applications of CAM to specific Outcomes and Key Actions of the various CBP Workgroups to support the New Bay Agreement (2014) are also discussed.



Time and Venue

Seminars start at 12 noon, scheduled for 45 mins (15 mins plus 30 min question/discussion time).

Science for Citizens seminars are held in the Joe Macknis Conference Room (Fish Shack) at the Chesapeake Bay Program Office, 410 Severn Avenue, Annapolis MD 21403, immediately following the monthly meetings of the Science Technical Analysis and Reporting (STAR) team meetings.

Citizens for Science seminars are conducted at the UMCES Annapolis Office, 1 Park Place, Suite 325, Annapolis, MD 21401.



Inquiries

If you have any queries or would like to contribute to next year's seminar series, please contact:

Jane Thomas ()
Bill Dennison ()