IAN Seminar Series 2013

The goal of the IAN seminar series is to provide concise, thought-provoking ideas relating to Chesapeake Bay science and management. Short presentations (15 minutes maximum length) are immediately followed by a lunchtime discussion of the topics raised by the presenter. The discussion is summarized and is posted along with a pdf version of the seminar slides. The seminars are captured on video and posted under a Creative Commons license so they can be freely shared.

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Date	Speaker	Seminar	Series
Thu 11 Oct 2007 http://ian.umces.edu/seminarseries/ Climate forcing of mid-Atlantic estuaries in the 21st Century - Dr Ray Najjar (Penn State) - IAN Seminar Series 2007-10-11T12:00:00-04:00 2007-10-11T13:00:00-04:00 Macknis Room, Chesapeake Bay Program Office, 410 Severn Avenue (Suite 109), Annapolis MD To better understand the implications of anthropogenic climate change for three major Mid-Atlantic estuaries (Chesapeake Bay, Delaware Bay, and the Hudson River Estuary), we analyzed the regional output of seven global climate models. The simulation given by the average of the models was generally superior to individual models, which differed dramatically in their ability to simulate 20th-century climate. The model average had little bias in its mean temperature and precipitation and, except in the Lower Chesapeake Watershed, was able to capture the 20th-century temperature trend. Weaknesses in the model average were too much seasonality in temperature and precipitation, a shift in precipitation\'s summer maximum to spring and winter minimum to fall, interannual variability that was too high in temperature and too low in precipitation, and inability to capture the 20th-century precipitation increase. All models warmed over the 21st century under the six greenhouse gas scenarios considered, with an increase of 4.7 ± 2.0° C (model mean ± 1 standard deviation) for the A2 scenario (a medium-high emission scenario) over the Chesapeake Bay Watershed by 2070-2099. Precipitation projections had much weaker consensus, with a corresponding increase of 3 ± 12% for the A2 scenario, but in winter there was a more consistent increase of 8 ± 7%. The projected climate averaged over the four best-performing models was significantly cooler and wetter than the projected seven-model-average climate. Precipitation projections were within the range of interannual variability but temperature projections were not. The implied research needs are for improvements in precipitation projections and a better understanding of the impacts of warming on streamflow and estuarine ecology and biogeochemistry.	Dr Ray Najjar Penn State najjar@meteo.psu.edu	Climate forcing of mid-Atlantic estuaries in the 21st Century	Science for Citizens
Abstract To better understand the implications of anthropogenic climate change for three major Mid-Atlantic estuaries (Chesapeake Bay, Delaware Bay, and the Hudson River Estuary), we analyzed the regional output of seven global climate models. The simulation given by the average of the models was generally superior to individual models, which differed dramatically in their ability to simulate 20th-century climate. The model average had little bias in its mean temperature and precipitation and, except in the Lower Chesapeake Watershed, was able to capture the 20th-century temperature trend. Weaknesses in the model average were too much seasonality in temperature and precipitation, a shift in precipitation's summer maximum to spring and winter minimum to fall, interannual variability that was too high in temperature and too low in precipitation, and inability to capture the 20th-century precipitation increase. All models warmed over the 21st century under the six greenhouse gas scenarios considered, with an increase of 4.7 ± 2.0° C (model mean ± 1 standard deviation) for the A2 scenario (a medium-high emission scenario) over the Chesapeake Bay Watershed by 2070-2099. Precipitation projections had much weaker consensus, with a corresponding increase of 3 ± 12% for the A2 scenario, but in winter there was a more consistent increase of 8 ± 7%. The projected climate averaged over the four best-performing models was significantly cooler and wetter than the projected seven-model-average climate. Precipitation projections were within the range of interannual variability but temperature projections were not. The implied research needs are for improvements in precipitation projections and a better understanding of the impacts of warming on streamflow and estuarine ecology and biogeochemistry.

Time and Venue

Seminars start at 12 noon, scheduled for 45 mins (15 mins plus 30 min question/discussion time).

Science for Citizens seminars are held in the Joe Macknis Conference Room (Fish Shack) at the Chesapeake Bay Program Office, 410 Severn Avenue, Annapolis MD 21403, immediately following the monthly meetings of the Science Technical Analysis and Reporting (STAR) team meetings.

Citizens for Science seminars are conducted at the UMCES Annapolis Office, 1 Park Place, Suite 325, Annapolis, MD 21401.

Inquiries

If you have any queries or would like to contribute to next year's seminar series, please contact:

Jane Thomas ()
Bill Dennison ()