A monthly seminar series in Annapolis, providing concise, thought-provoking ideas relating to Chesapeake Bay science and management. http://ian.umces.edu/seminarseries/ Integration and Application Network The Sassafras river is a small tributary of the Chesapeake Bay. The Sassafras river association is responsible for preserving the water quality of the estuary. This involves measuring the water quality, reporting the findings, and making active changes concerning surrounding farmers, fishermen, and local business owners. In summary, water quality was found to increase farther downstream. Also, there are high chlorophyll and PH levels throughout the year. http://ian.umces.edu/seminarseries/seminar/87/water_quality_monitoring_on_the_sassafras_river_2012-01-31/ http://ian.umces.edu/seminarseries/seminar/87/water_quality_monitoring_on_the_sassafras_river_2012-01-31/ Fri, 10 Feb 2012 16:27:26 -0500 The Great Barrier Reef is an extremely important resource. It is home to approximately 2900 coral reef systems, sea grass meadows, and mangroves. In an effort to improve water quality of the Great Barrier Reef, the Queensland government put together the Paddock to Reef Program, which helps restrain the amount of sediment that is disposed into the lagoon by industry. The program devised an ABCD framework to measure acceptable land management practices. A Great Barrier Reef Report Card was made, reporting on the water quality by region using this measurement. It was found that the Great Barrier Reef is in moderate condition overall, but it varies from region to region. http://ian.umces.edu/seminarseries/seminar/86/tracking_agricultural_pollutant_impacts_to_the_great_barrier_reef_through_an_annual_report_card_2011-12-15/ http://ian.umces.edu/seminarseries/seminar/86/tracking_agricultural_pollutant_impacts_to_the_great_barrier_reef_through_an_annual_report_card_2011-12-15/ Tue, 03 Jan 2012 14:38:01 -0500 The Chester is a river on the northern part of the Chesapeake Bay. It has twenty sites that test depth, temperature, and salinity, conductivity, turbidity, and Secchi, a method of judging water quality based on the depth of the water in which the light from the surface reaches. In more recent years, Secchi scoring has recently been reported in the Chester River based on more in-depth testing, using multiple percent thresholds. By using multiple data points from tests that are done over time, an area is given an average water quality score. This is opposed to the former, single threshold method, in which a score is given based on one threshold that is decided at the beginning of the experiment. http://ian.umces.edu/seminarseries/seminar/85/sampling_data_analysis_single_vs_multiple_threshold_scoring_2011-10-25/ http://ian.umces.edu/seminarseries/seminar/85/sampling_data_analysis_single_vs_multiple_threshold_scoring_2011-10-25/ Mon, 07 Nov 2011 15:10:14 -0500 In 2008, Don Boesch led a study on the long-term impacts of climate change in Maryland. What this study found was that, over the course of one hundred years, communities in Maryland can expect to experience a three to four feet rise in sea-level, a temperature increase of four to seven degrees fahrenheit, potentially more flooding, as well as other related impacts. In moving forward, and affecting change on this issue, it is necessary to use a combination of two approaches; the mitigation approach, and the adaptation approach. Mitigation involves using less green house gasses to affect change globally. Adaptation involves making systematic adjustments at the local or state level, making communities more resilient to the effects of climate change. The effects of climate change directly affect habitat, species and water quality, which should be monitored in a number of different ways. These include protecting and regularly sampling reference sites, improving hydrologic and temperature data, and deciding upon the most important measures to be a part of the data. Then, it can be figured out which habitats and species are the most vulnerable, and how the resiliency of these habitats and species can be improved. http://ian.umces.edu/seminarseries/seminar/84/assessing_the_future_climate_change_and_resilience_in_aquatic_systems_2011-09-27/ http://ian.umces.edu/seminarseries/seminar/84/assessing_the_future_climate_change_and_resilience_in_aquatic_systems_2011-09-27/ Mon, 07 Nov 2011 13:31:30 -0500 Baltimore Harbor is a historic port city built on two tidal sub-regions of the Chesapeake Bay. This report evaluated tidal ecological health indicators and human health and aesthetics indicators. The indicators examined were disolved oxygen, Chlorophyll a, water clarity, total nitrogen, total phosphorous, benthic macro invertebrates, submerged aquatic vegetation, toxic contaminants, bacteria, trash and fish toxicity. All ecological health indicators scored as poor or very poor and the human health and aesthetics indicators scored as moderate and poor. http://ian.umces.edu/seminarseries/seminar/83/assessing_the_ecological_and_human_health_status_of_baltimore_s_inner_harbor_2011-08-25/ http://ian.umces.edu/seminarseries/seminar/83/assessing_the_ecological_and_human_health_status_of_baltimore_s_inner_harbor_2011-08-25/ Wed, 19 Oct 2011 15:26:43 -0400 The Queensland government, as part of the Paddock to Reef Program, is preparing an annual report card on the health of the Great Barrier Reef. The report card utilizes monitoring and modeling from the paddock (farm) scale through the riverways and down to the reef scale. The Great Barrier Reef is a world heritage site, encompassing 2900 reefs, in addition to seagrass meadows and mangrove habitats. The GBR spans 2300km along the Australian coastline. Reef health is threatened by numerous impacts, among them climate change, shipping, coastal development, and point source pollution; the Paddock to Reef Program focuses on diffuse source pollution from agriculture. The Reef Plan contains several targets aimed at improving land management practices for wetland loss, riparian cover, and groundcover. Land practices are graded on an ABCD scheme, with excellent practices that have high water quality benefits earning a grade 'A' and poor practices having a grade 'D'. Catchment indicators, catchment loads, and marine indicators are also integrated into the report card. Practice adoption data is collected by industries and graded on the ABCD framework. The main industries along the Queensland coast include bananas, grazing, cropping, sugar cane, and horticulture. Multiple lines of evidence are a critical aspect of the program, starting with practice adoption (verified with land use, bare ground index), practice effectiveness (rainfall simulation activities, plot monitoring, paddock models), water quality reductions at different basin scales, and ecosystem outcomes with marine monitoring (water quality, coral and seagrass health). http://ian.umces.edu/seminarseries/seminar/82/reef_water_quality_protection_plan_report_card_paddock_to_the_great_barrier_reef_2010-11-30/ http://ian.umces.edu/seminarseries/seminar/82/reef_water_quality_protection_plan_report_card_paddock_to_the_great_barrier_reef_2010-11-30/ Thu, 02 Jun 2011 17:02:21 -0400 Hypoxia trends in the South River have been documented over summer (April-August) 2010. Twenty-one sites, seven of which are in the mainstem, were sampled weekly. Two stations were added in the past year based on feedback from the MTAC (Mid-Atlantic Tributary Assessment Coalition) group. In April 2010, hypoxic  (low dissolved oxygen) conditions started to emerge. Stratification in the mainstem South River is rather ephemeral, with the water column mixing weekly or in some locations, even daily from strong wind events. Stratification typically fosters low dissolved oxygen conditions. The summer was characterized by high temperatures--driven by La Nina--and strong wind events from the south and southeast. During May, DO conditions were not as low as usual for the time of year. Sampling location order was varied to diversify wind and tidal stage conditions found throughout the day. One station is too shallow to be sampled except during an incoming or flood tide, due to altered hydrodynamics resulting from Route 50. In late July, anoxic conditions began to develop relatively high the water column. Anoxic (no DO) and hypoxic (low DO) conditions create a habitat squeeze, in which fish, crabs, and other animals are forced higher in the water column to find sufficient DO conditions. In August, conditions alternatively showed anoxic and hypoxic waters. To enhance data collection, the South River has started experimenting with several autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs) with attached sensors to monitor spatial and temporal trends within the river. http://ian.umces.edu/seminarseries/seminar/76/emerging_hypoxia_trends_in_the_south_river_2010-08-31/ http://ian.umces.edu/seminarseries/seminar/76/emerging_hypoxia_trends_in_the_south_river_2010-08-31/ Tue, 15 Mar 2011 10:51:30 -0400 Over the past few years, the Nanticoke Watershed Alliance has worked with stakeholder groups to create a comprehensive Watershed Management Plan. The Nanticoke Watershed Alliance serves as an umbrella organization for partnership among diverse groups of environmental advocates, business, industry, and other stakeholders. In development of the Watershed Management Plan, the Alliance held a green infrastructure conference in winter 2007, a community outreach initiative over 2008-2009, listening sessions in winter 2009, and a community "visioning" conference in March 2010. The Future Search model was applied to create a matrix of stakeholder groups, with the intention to maximize geographic, generational, gender, and racial diversity within the watershed. During the community visioning conference, stakeholder groups created two vision statements and plans for implementation. These recommendations are being incorporated into the Watershed Management Plan, anticipated for completion in April 2011. The Plan will be used by county governments for conservation and development initiatives. http://ian.umces.edu/seminarseries/seminar/77/nanticoke_watershed_alliance_a_new_model_for_conservation_2010-09-28/ http://ian.umces.edu/seminarseries/seminar/77/nanticoke_watershed_alliance_a_new_model_for_conservation_2010-09-28/ Mon, 14 Mar 2011 11:03:58 -0400 Magothy River ecosystem health, particularly surface dissolved oxygen (DO), was assessed by the Magothy River Association. While DO is usually measured in bottom waters where algae fall, decompose, and create low DO conditions, algal blooms at the surface can create low DO conditions throughout the water column. Low DO presents problems for biota like fish and crabs. Volunteers collected data from sampling sites grouped into three locations: Magothy creeks, Magothy mainstem, and Mill and Dividing creeks. The sites at Mill and Dividing creeks were added to the data set after 3 million gallons of untreated sewage spilled into upper Mill creek in 2005. Summertime (June-September) data revealed higher DO at the surface than within the water column, and higher DO in the mainstem instead of creeks. Surface and water column DO were the worst overall, with the greatest spatial variability, in Mill and Dividing creeks. http://ian.umces.edu/seminarseries/seminar/74/low_surface_dissolved_oxygen_in_the_magothy_river_2006_2010_2011-01-26/ http://ian.umces.edu/seminarseries/seminar/74/low_surface_dissolved_oxygen_in_the_magothy_river_2006_2010_2011-01-26/ Fri, 11 Mar 2011 14:13:02 -0500 The Chesapeake Bay TMDL, finalized by EPA in December 2010, sets limits for the amount of nutrients (nitrogen and phosphorus) and sediment permitted to enter the Bay through its watershed. These pollution levels are determined by the amount that can enter the Bay and still meet water quality standards of dissolved oxygen, chlorophyll a, and submerged aquatic vegetation water clarity in the 92 tidal segments where metrics are measured. The EPA led the Bay's seven watershed jurisdictions--Maryland, Delaware, Virginia, West Virginia, Pennsylvania, New York, and the District of Columbia--in establishing the TMDL under regulations set forth by the Clean Water Act. The use of an accountability framework is a hallmark of the Chesapeake Bay TMDL. The framework starts with each states' Watershed Implementation Plans (WIPs). Phase I WIPs, completed in 2010, highlighted wastewater treatment plant reductions, urban stormwater permits, and new programs and technologies for agriculture. Phase II WIPs, currently in process, focus on local partners and include revised model results for agricultural nutrient management and urban land use area. The WIPs are incorporated into the TMDL with regular two-year milestones and additional modeling and monitoring to evaluate progress. Federal action can be taken if EPA determines that WIPs or milestones are not adequate to achieve results. This framework will guide agencies through 2025, the goal set for achieving pollution reduction levels, 60 percent of which must be obtained by 2017. http://ian.umces.edu/seminarseries/seminar/73/the_chesapeake_bay_tmdl_a_pollution_diet_to_restore_clean_water_2011-03-01/ http://ian.umces.edu/seminarseries/seminar/73/the_chesapeake_bay_tmdl_a_pollution_diet_to_restore_clean_water_2011-03-01/ Thu, 10 Mar 2011 13:55:39 -0500 Environmental simulation models are invaluable tools for informing societal decision making. For example, we depend on hydrologic models to inform water supply/flooding decisions, water quality models for Total Maximum Daily Loads (TMDLs), and air quality models for standards compliance assessment. When multiple models are available, it is not uncommon to apply more than a single model to inform a decision, particularly if the consequences of a decision are significant, and uncertainties are believed to be large. Consider weather forecasting for major storms such as hurricanes. It is now common practice for a meteorologist to display the projected deterministic trajectories of the hurricane’s eye based on several model forecasts; the fact that these models are based on different mathematical constructs adds to the robustness of the envelope covering the range of storm trajectories. It also provides greater public awareness of possible outcomes than does a single deterministic trajectory. In 1997, a four-year study (“Neuse ModMon”) was initiated that eventually led to an approved nitrogen TMDL for the Neuse River Estuary. In this study, two mechanistic models (CE-QUAL-W2 and EFDC-WASP) were applied along with a probabilistic Bayes network. Like the current Chesapeake Bay model, the 2D and 3D mechanistic models produced considerable space/time predictive detail on the regulated response variables (e.g., chlorophyll a and dissolved oxygen) but their complexity prohibited the quantification of prediction uncertainty. In contrast, the Bayes net was selected specifically to express prediction uncertainty in probabilistic terms. Notably, the flexibility of Bayes nets also allowed expert elicitation of probabilistic relationships for endpoints (e.g., probability of major fishkills, shellfish survival) that were meaningful to the public but were not predicted by the mechanistic models. During the time of model refinement and development of the TMDL, frequent meetings were held with stakeholders to describe progress with the modeling and the TMDL and to address concerns about the adequacy of the Neuse ModMon effort to provide a scientific basis for water quality improvement. In early meetings, stakeholders in general were pleased with the aquatic ecosystem detail in the two mechanistic models, while admittedly not understanding model relationships. However as time progressed, interest shifted toward the simpler BN model because the conceptual presentation of the network was easy to grasp, because the uncertainty analysis presented through the BN provided stakeholders with a realistic appraisal of the difficulties in predicting aquatic ecosystem response, and because the BN assessed ecologically-meaningful endpoints. http://ian.umces.edu/seminarseries/seminar/72/the_value_of_multiple_models_for_tmdl_development_a_case_study_of_the_neuse_river_estuary_2011-02-24/ http://ian.umces.edu/seminarseries/seminar/72/the_value_of_multiple_models_for_tmdl_development_a_case_study_of_the_neuse_river_estuary_2011-02-24/ Mon, 28 Feb 2011 13:19:54 -0500 For over 30 years there has been extensive collection of water quality and streamflow data for the major rivers entering the Chesapeake Bay. These data have the potential to help us understand changes over time in nutrient inputs. However, properly calculating the direction, magnitude, and nature of the changes in nutrient inputs is not a simple task because of the extensive amounts of seasonal variation and streamflow-driven variation that exist in these records. A new approach has been developed, called “Weighted Regressions on Time, Discharge, and Season” (WRTDS). Recently published results using this method help to reveal the types of trends that exist in nitrate and total phosphorus inputs to the Bay from the non-tidal portions of the Bay’s major tributaries. Some changes can be related to implementation of point source controls; others suggest increased non-point source inputs. Still others are related to increased nitrate in ground water. This new method helps the analyst to look beyond the variations that arise due to year-to-year streamflow differences, in order to understand fundamental changes in the functioning of individual watersheds. http://ian.umces.edu/seminarseries/seminar/71/are_we_making_progress_interpreting_the_nutrient_flux_records_for_the_major_rivers_flowing_to_the_chesapeake_bay_2010-11-23/ http://ian.umces.edu/seminarseries/seminar/71/are_we_making_progress_interpreting_the_nutrient_flux_records_for_the_major_rivers_flowing_to_the_chesapeake_bay_2010-11-23/ Tue, 18 Jan 2011 17:59:43 -0500 Watershed analyses of nutrient removal in riparian buffers have been limited by the geographic methods used to map buffers and by the statistical models used to test and quantify buffer effects on stream nutrient levels. We combined geographic methods that account for buffer prevalence along flow paths connecting croplands to streams with improved statistical models to test for buffer effects on stream nitrate concentrations from 321 tributary watersheds to the Chesapeake Bay, USA. We developed statistical models that predict stream nitrate concentration from watershed land cover and physiographic province. We used information theoretic methods (AICc) to compare models with and without buffer terms, and we demonstrate that models accounting for riparian buffers better explain stream nitrate concentrations than models using only land cover proportions. We analyzed the buffer model parameters to quantify differences within and among physiographic provinces in the potentials for nitrate loss from croplands and nitrate removal in buffers. On average, buffers in Coastal Plain study watersheds had a higher relative nitrate removal potential (95% of the inputs from cropland) than Piedmont buffers (35% of inputs). Buffers in Appalachian Mountain study watersheds were intermediate (retaining 39% of cropland inputs), but that percentage was uncertain. The absolute potential to reduce nitrate concentration was highest in the Piedmont study watersheds because of higher nitrate inputs from cropland. Model predictions for the study watersheds provided estimates of nitrate removals achieved with the existing cropland and buffer distributions. Compared to expected nitrate concentrations if buffers were removed, current buffers reduced average nitrate concentrations by 0.73 mg N/l (50% of their inputs from cropland) in the Coastal Plain study watersheds, 0.40 mg N/l (11%) in the Piedmont, and 0.08 mg N/l (5%) in the Appalachian Mountains. Restoration to close all buffer gaps downhill from croplands would further reduce nitrate concentrations by 0.66 mg N/l, 0.83 mg N/l, and 0.51 mg N/l, respectively, in the Coastal Plain, Piedmont, and Appalachian Mountain study watersheds. Aggregate nitrate removal by riparian buffers was less than suggested by many studies of field-to-stream transects, but buffer nitrate removal is significant and restoration could achieve substantial additional removal. http://ian.umces.edu/seminarseries/seminar/70/effects_of_riparian_buffers_on_nitrate_concentrations_in_watershed_discharges_new_models_and_management_implications_2010-10-28/ http://ian.umces.edu/seminarseries/seminar/70/effects_of_riparian_buffers_on_nitrate_concentrations_in_watershed_discharges_new_models_and_management_implications_2010-10-28/ Thu, 18 Nov 2010 11:06:38 -0500 Restoring the Chesapeake Bay's natural processes and functions (e.g., water regulation, nutrient cycling) in order to produce widely enjoyed benefits (e.g., recreational fishing and swimming) requires a multi-faceted approach, which includes using the strongest science possible to maximize the effectiveness of our restoration actions. We will describe results from a recent literature review in which we sought to establish the scientific evidence that specific monitoring metrics could successfully measure functional outcomes of natural restoration projects and be used in adaptive management. The work was conducted for the National Fish and Wildlife Federation and examined metrics applicable to some of the project types they fund: tidal and non-tidal wetland restoration, stream restoration, and "green" stormwater management. Some key take-home points were: 1. restored sites are marked by high variability and therefore early measurements can provide misleading indications of both positive and negative outcomes; 2. Some integrative metrics can be difficult to use in adaptive management since they can fail to pinpoint stressors; and 3. For stream restoration, restoring structure does not necessarily restore function. Overall, it appears that many metrics in widespread use are not providing useful information about key functional outcomes and that fewer, more meaningful, metrics may be preferred to many inexpensive metrics. An impediment to our evidence-based approach was that the number of case studies was insufficient to generate findings that could be readily applied across diverse settings. Therefore, our next step will be to review the literature findings with subject area experts to further distill the evidence and consider the transferability of isolated case studies to broader geographic regions. Finally, it was clear from the review that initial site selection and project goal setting must be realistic with respect to site constraints. The best restoration design and implementation cannot overcome high levels of system stress, therefore screening sites for compatibility with restoration goals is probably the most important component of promoting successful restoration. http://ian.umces.edu/seminarseries/seminar/69/evidence_based_restoration_promoting_successful_restoration_through_effective_monitoring_and_adaptive_management_2010-09-30/ http://ian.umces.edu/seminarseries/seminar/69/evidence_based_restoration_promoting_successful_restoration_through_effective_monitoring_and_adaptive_management_2010-09-30/ Mon, 18 Oct 2010 16:20:07 -0400 In order to better meet our ecosystem-based fishery management goals we need to move beyond traditional single species management plans to consider interconnections between species, their physical and living environments, and human influences. The Chesapeake ecosystem is highly responsive to climate variability, especially with respect to the winter-spring transition. The Chesapeake appears to have been responding strongly to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) for over a century. These fluctuations seem to be driving production & commercial landings within and beyond the Chesapeake for economically and ecologically valuable fishes. The stable nature of the AMO's 60-year periodicity seems to provide a valuable tool that can help prevent future fishery collapses: collapses likely caused by coupled production declines and late effort reductions; fishery targets and thresholds must acknowledge these patterns. http://ian.umces.edu/seminarseries/seminar/67/climate_forcing_of_fisheries_production_in_chesapeake_bay_over_the_last_century_2010-08-26/ http://ian.umces.edu/seminarseries/seminar/67/climate_forcing_of_fisheries_production_in_chesapeake_bay_over_the_last_century_2010-08-26/ Fri, 10 Sep 2010 18:59:54 -0400 Using citizen scientists, trained volunteers who collect accurate data, to generate ecohealth report cards provides the opportunity for informal educational experiences. Ecohealth report cards, assessments of ecosystem health using a suite of indicators, can be used to enhance environmental literacy. This increased literacy will help citizen scientists achieve healthy waterways; an empowered citizenry can make informed decisions, promote environmental stewardship, and influence others to adopt behaviors that promote healthy streams, rivers, lakes, bays, and ocean. Using citizen scientists can help to reduce the significant investment in resources required for effective monitoring programs, but care must be taken to assure data quality. Currently, 8-12 mid-Atlantic watershed organizations require analysis and communication assistance from the Integration and Application Network to produce report cards. These groups express the need for technology solutions to address citizen scientist recruitment, engagement, training, and management. IAN is looking to develop a formalized report card process and create web and smartphone app portals to standardize data entry and dissemination. http://ian.umces.edu/seminarseries/seminar/68/challenges_and_advantages_of_using_citizen_scientists_for_environmental_monitoring_2010-07-27/ http://ian.umces.edu/seminarseries/seminar/68/challenges_and_advantages_of_using_citizen_scientists_for_environmental_monitoring_2010-07-27/ Wed, 01 Sep 2010 18:35:37 -0400 We have done a great job at figuring out where all the nitrogen comes from, but we are a little weak on where it goes. Is it going away or will it result in longer term problems? There has been a 7-Fold increase in N since John Smith's arrival to Bay Area. 50% increase during first 360 yrs and 50% increase in last 40 yrs. There are quite a few hotspots in the land and sea-scape for nitrogen sources, but also areas that remove nitrogen. A mass balance for the Patuxent tidal marshes (which represent only 2% of the basin landscape) showed 48% removal of all the nitrogen coming into the system. Rates of removal are equivalent to all the sewage treatment plants on the Patuxent. Population in the basin is going up, but the area of impervious surfaces has increased even more. Historically the Chesapeake region had significantly greater wetlands area, promoted in part by beaver activity. This has resulted in significant reductions in the rates of denitrification. The bay has nutrient obesity - too much of a good thing. Restoration goals should include fostering wetland areas. http://ian.umces.edu/seminarseries/seminar/66/where_has_all_the_nitrogen_gone_hot_spots_in_the_land_and_seascape_2010-07-29/ http://ian.umces.edu/seminarseries/seminar/66/where_has_all_the_nitrogen_gone_hot_spots_in_the_land_and_seascape_2010-07-29/ Wed, 04 Aug 2010 13:32:00 -0400 For ecosystem-based management and assessment multiple users of ecosystem resources have to be taken into account and decisions about trade-offs among multiple uses must be dealt with in a manner that all agencies and stakeholders understand and can engage in. Involvement of multiple stakeholders means multiple agencies that oversee the use of resources will be involved with resource management decisions and policies. Each agency has its own sets of jargon, acronyms, and perspective on how an ecosystem operates. The perspectives on how the system operates may be captured in different modeling method and structures for each segment of the ecosystem. Diversity in management agencies and stakeholders can result in a "Tower of Babel", i.e., everyone speaking different "languages" resulting in decreased productivity or even catastrophe. In addition, ecosystem interactions tend to be complex, and visualizing the high-dimensional data associated with ecosystems can be difficult. Scientists engaged in research and modeling need to summarize and synthesize results across disciplines and objectives so that all stakeholders can understand and make informed decisions about trade-offs in ecosystem services. This presentation will focus on the NCBO Ecosystem Modeling Team's efforts to use cgi graphics to facilitate decision support for the Sustainable Fisheries Goal Implementation Team in exploring ecosystem-based fisheries management scenarios. http://ian.umces.edu/seminarseries/seminar/63/communicating_complex_scientific_results_for_ecosystem_based_management_using_cgi_computer_generated_image_animation_2010-06-24/ http://ian.umces.edu/seminarseries/seminar/63/communicating_complex_scientific_results_for_ecosystem_based_management_using_cgi_computer_generated_image_animation_2010-06-24/ Thu, 01 Jul 2010 13:00:51 -0400 To help meet Federal and state mandates to regulate nutrient discharges, Maryland now requires that all Maryland municipalities prepare a non-point source discharge assessment as part of a Comprehensive Growth Plan. This mandate presents an ideal opportunity to integrate watershed science and management. State guidelines currently suggest using the Maryland Department of Planning (MDP) Non-Point Source Assessment Spreadsheet to downscale annual average predictions from the Chesapeake Bay Program's HSPF Phase 4 model. The assessment tool is intended to help land managers minimize surface water quality impacts by providing nutrient load estimates under current and future land use scenarios. We implemented the MDP tool for a Maryland town, along with three watershed models, GWLF, SWAT, and the CBP-HSPF5, The differences in predicted water quality among alternative land use scenarios being considered by town planners (including a no change scenario) were small, especially compared to the variation among models in the predictions for any single scenario. In addition, all the models agreed that nutrient discharges originate primarily from outside the planning jurisdiction. Because of the dominance of external sources and the similarity among scenarios, the predicted impacts from non-point source pollution have had little influence on the Town's land management decisions. http://ian.umces.edu/seminarseries/seminar/65/the_role_of_watershed_modeling_in_local_land_management_decisions_in_maryland_communities_2010-05-20/ http://ian.umces.edu/seminarseries/seminar/65/the_role_of_watershed_modeling_in_local_land_management_decisions_in_maryland_communities_2010-05-20/ Wed, 26 May 2010 12:31:32 -0400 Empirical models were developed at South Carolina beaches and estuaries to create daily forecasts of bacterial water quality for use as decision support tools. These tools predict exceedance of bacteria criteria using integrated monitoring data, remote sensing, and meteorology information. The models developed for beach areas used precipitation data from a rain gauge network, tide data, and qualitative weather information to predict criterion exceedance. Current efforts on these tools include integrating data from ocean observing systems and precipitation data from remote sensing products to create near-real time prediction updates presented in a web-based GIS. Similar predictive models for fecal coliform bacteria concentration were developed using integrated data from monitoring programs, meteorology, and remote sensing. These two related modeling efforts highlight the utility and feasibility of integrating data from observing systems and remote sensing to create empirically-based decision support tools. http://ian.umces.edu/seminarseries/seminar/64/beach_and_shellfish_forecasts_using_integrated_data_from_monitoring_programs_remote_sensing_and_observing_systems_2010-04-22/ http://ian.umces.edu/seminarseries/seminar/64/beach_and_shellfish_forecasts_using_integrated_data_from_monitoring_programs_remote_sensing_and_observing_systems_2010-04-22/ Wed, 28 Apr 2010 13:20:10 -0400 The Corsica River project, an intensive restoration effort focused on a sub-estuary of the Chester River on the Eastern Shore of Chesapeake Bay, offered an opportunity to review the lessons learned that can help guide the restoration efforts throughout Chesapeake Bay. There were seven major lessons learned from this analysis of the Corsica River restoration. 1) Develop a conceptual model at the beginning of the project and use 'back of the envelope' calculations to identify important processes and make linkages between management and ecosystem responses. 2) Do a nutrient budget to insure that the overall components are of the correct magnitude and avoid missing large missing pieces of the nutrient budget. 3) Use a combination of monitoring static parameters and process measurements to determine rates of key processes—in the Corsica River example, rate measurements of nutrient burial, nutrient recycling and denitrification were essential. 4) Initiate the measurement program early to obtain 'baseline' information, and continue measurements for full annual periods of time. 5) Measurements over multiple years is critical because of climate variability (wet vs. dry years) and increases the statistical power of the analyses. 6) It requires a team effort involving experts from multiple agencies and academic institutions prompting the quote 'When the going gets tough, the smart collaborate'. 7) Data synthesis does not happen without resources and vision—the Corsica River project had a distinct and funded goal with the necessary leadership to reach a useful endpoint. http://ian.umces.edu/seminarseries/seminar/62/corsica_river_estuary_restoration_saga_data_analysis_and_lessons_learned_2010-03-25/ http://ian.umces.edu/seminarseries/seminar/62/corsica_river_estuary_restoration_saga_data_analysis_and_lessons_learned_2010-03-25/ Tue, 30 Mar 2010 16:22:52 -0400 In 2008, an innovative partnership between the University of South Carolina and Lake Wateree, SC homeowners began in order to restart previously existing water quality monitoring efforts, provide data analysis, and make resulting information easily accessible to stakeholders. This project explored effective ways to foster links between 'science' and people - i.e. how to most effectively communicate scientific concepts and monitoring results to stakeholders addressing real world concerns. Lake Wateree spans three counties in South Carolina and is the last in a series of eleven reservoirs within the Catawba/Wateree watershed that stretches across North and South Carolina. It is an important resource for recreation and municipal water use, and from 1999-2003, volunteers sampled monthly at sites across the lake in an effort to monitor water quality. The original intent was to use the data to appeal to decision-makers for action if needed, however no rigorous analyses were conducted, and therefore no tangible results were produced, causing interest and participation to wane. Following the Catawba-Wateree River's designation as 'America's Most Endangered River' in 2008 by American Rivers, there was renewed interest in regularly monitoring the health of Lake Wateree by home and property owners on the lake. Partnering with USC allowed the homeowners to revamp and restart their monitoring efforts, and to establish standard protocols and data collection methods. Currently, after each monthly sampling run, USC personnel download the raw data and generate a report that is sent back to the homeowners associations for dissemination. The reports by request are basic and do not include extensive comparison with past monitoring results. To address this, an interactive, website incorporating Google Maps was developed so that interested persons can access all past reports as well as additional relevant information, and learn about the monitoring efforts taking place on the lake (http://sites.google.com/site/watereewaterwatch/). Collaboration between USC and the homeowners has resulted thus far in: increased volunteer participation, community wide meetings on the importance of water quality, publicity in a variety of news outlets, and reception of a $5,000 grant (applied for by a homeowner) in support of the project. Since volunteer based monitoring is recognized as a way for citizens to translate knowledge into action, make informed decisions, and provide information to influence future resource management strategies, the expectation is that this partnership will ultimately result in greater public support for monitoring and stewardship of Lake Wateree and the surrounding watersheds. http://ian.umces.edu/seminarseries/seminar/61/getting_out_of_the_lake_and_into_the_watershed_a_study_of_volunteer_monitoring_efforts_water_quality_and_community_outreach_2010-02-25/ http://ian.umces.edu/seminarseries/seminar/61/getting_out_of_the_lake_and_into_the_watershed_a_study_of_volunteer_monitoring_efforts_water_quality_and_community_outreach_2010-02-25/ Tue, 30 Mar 2010 16:15:25 -0400 The Chesapeake Bay Health index, comprised of three water quality indicators (water clarity, dissolved oxygen, chlorophyll a) and three biotic indicators (submerged aquatic vegetation, benthic index of biotic integrity, phytoplankton index of biotic integrity) was calculated for 15 reporting regions to produce annual report cards. Using the same set of indicators, the Bay Health Index was calculated for previous years that data were collected by the Chesapeake Bay Program. An analysis of the data over time reveals some significant positive and negative trajectories. In three reporting regions (James River, Upper Bay and Elizabeth River), the trajectories are significantly (p < 0.10) positive, alternatively in three reporting regions, (Mid Bay, Upper Eastern Shore, Lower Western Shore of MD), the trajectories are significantly (p < 0.10) negative. Furthermore, in the Upper Western Shore there is a significant positive trajectory of the water quality index. The remaining reporting regions were not significantly positive or negative. The enigma of having improving water quality index in the Upper Western Shore immediately adjacent to the Upper Eastern Shore with degrading water quality prompts the question posed by Governor O'Malley, 'Why are some areas getting better and others getting worse?'. This very basic question is key to establishing priorities for Bay restoration and this seminar is designed to articulate the question, and begin a discussion as to causes. http://ian.umces.edu/seminarseries/seminar/60/chesapeake_bay_health_what_causes_positive_and_negative_trajectories_2010-01-28/ http://ian.umces.edu/seminarseries/seminar/60/chesapeake_bay_health_what_causes_positive_and_negative_trajectories_2010-01-28/ Tue, 30 Mar 2010 16:10:15 -0400 The continental shelf and slope regions in the Pacific Arctic sector are extremely productive due to the input of nutrient-rich Pacific water on the northern Bering and Chukchi Sea shelves and into the Arctic Ocean. Benthic-dominated regions on these shallow shelves have high benthic infaunal biomass and sediment carbon cycling. Bivalves, polychaetes and amphipods dominate the infaunal organisms and this region serves as a major prey area for benthic-feeding marine mammals and seabirds, including walrus, gray whales and diving seaducks. Past studies in the region indicate food supply is the major factor influencing benthic carbon cycling, with colder water regions having some of the highest benthic carbon cycling rates, indicative of higher organic carbon export to the benthos. However, with the increasing influence of warmer, lower nutrient water transiting northward from the Bering Sea, a continued reduced seasonal sea ice coverage, and corresponding increases in seawater temperatures, it is likely that the changes being seen in the biological ecosystem will continue and possibly accelerate. A large-scale impact might well be a transitional change from a benthic-dominated northern Bering and Chukchi shelf region to a more pelagic-dominated system. Data will be presented on key biological factors influencing benthic carbon cycling at various time and space scales in the western Arctic region in order to evaluate both present impacts and possible future changes in benthic processes in this highly productive system. http://ian.umces.edu/seminarseries/seminar/59/biological_response_to_ecosystem_change_in_the_northern_bering_and_chukchi_seas_2009-02-19/ http://ian.umces.edu/seminarseries/seminar/59/biological_response_to_ecosystem_change_in_the_northern_bering_and_chukchi_seas_2009-02-19/ Thu, 19 Feb 2009 12:00:00 -0500 The recent significant decline in Arctic sea ice has captured public interest in the challenges of mitigating and responding to climate changes that seem to be unambiguously underway at high latitudes. Despite the obvious physical differences between ice-covered seas and open water, predicting ecosystem response and biological changes that are likely to result is much more difficult. For example, it is thought that declining sea ice coverage will increase light penetration and increase primary production on arctic continental shelves, which might be globally significant because the continental shelves in the Arctic are the world's largest in extent. However, in comparisons between chlorophyll biomass in the Bering Sea for years with light versus heavy ice coverage, open water conditions do not lead to significantly higher water column chlorophyll biomass possibly because high winds significantly mix phytoplankton in open water and sea ice provides an attachment structure to hold sea ice algae close to the sea surface. The timing of seasonal sea ice retreat is also hypothesized to play a role in structuring the food web with better development of zooplankton populations in some circumstances. The northern Bering and Chukchi continental shelves currently have short, efficient food-chains that deposit organic material synthesized during the brief, but intense production period directly to the shallow sea floor without much exploitation by zooplankton. Specialized apex predators such as walrus, gray whales, bearded seals and diving sea ducks exploit the rich benthos as a food resource, but there is also evidence that fish are becoming more important in structuring the food web and zooplankton may also become more important in intercepting primary production too. The North Pacific Fisheries Management Council has also begun to assess how fisheries should be managed and what the potential conflicts will be for the existing benthic-based food-web as commercial exploitation of Bering Sea fisheries is poised to expand northward. I will present data on what is known about how the Bering and Chukchi Sea food webs and biological systems are changing in response to regime shifts and seasonal sea ice retreat. Our intent is to use these data as a starting point for developing a predictive capability to understand how the arctic biological system will respond to the stresses of climate change. http://ian.umces.edu/seminarseries/seminar/55/potential_ecosystem_impacts_of_the_decline_of_seasonal_sea_ice_in_the_arctic_2008-06-26/ http://ian.umces.edu/seminarseries/seminar/55/potential_ecosystem_impacts_of_the_decline_of_seasonal_sea_ice_in_the_arctic_2008-06-26/ Thu, 26 Jun 2008 12:00:00 -0400 Existing individual-based models of clonal plants rely on simple rules of rhizome spacing, branching angle, and branching rate to predict colonization of space by asexually reproducing ramets. These models have provided unanticipated explanations for the emergence of nonlinear patch growth observed in real populations. However, no efforts have attempted to link these models' growth or morphological parameters with environmental conditions, relying instead on constant or stochastic values. In the case of seagrasses, widespread decline has prompted managers to ask for predictive tools that might provide better understanding of the landscape-level response of these clonal plants to water quality. The Virtual Eelgrass Meadow (VEM) was created to explore how the simple rules of a modular, clonal, architecture might be linked with environmental variables such as light, temperature, and nutrients to simulate eelgrass patch dynamics. Insights from VEM simulations suggest that changes to growth rates and resource allocation in response to the physical environment provide a mechanistic explanation for the morphological plasticity of ramets, which ultimately affects patch expansion rates. http://ian.umces.edu/seminarseries/seminar/53/the_virtual_eelgrass_meadow_2008-04-24/ http://ian.umces.edu/seminarseries/seminar/53/the_virtual_eelgrass_meadow_2008-04-24/ Thu, 24 Apr 2008 12:00:00 -0400 Bacterioplankton are essential components of aquatic ecosystems, catalyzing critical biogeochemical reactions and serving as central members of planktonic food webs. Recent large-scale DNA sequencing projects show a staggeringly high genetic diversity in bacterioplankton communities, and yet several recent studies show predictable patterns in this diversity including spatial patterns related to environmental gradients and dispersal, and temporal patterns including seasonality and annual re-assembly. These biogeographic patterns reveal the tight connection between bacteria and their environment, and suggest that Metacommunity Theory and other ecological theories developed for macroscopic organisms may also apply to microscopic organisms. This talk will discuss these theories citing several examples of biogeographic patterns in bacterioplankton drawn from research on the Alaskan Tundra, a New England salt marsh estuary, and the anoxic zone of the Chesapeake Bay. http://ian.umces.edu/seminarseries/seminar/52/bacterial_biogeography_in_aquatic_ecosystems_2008-03-27/ http://ian.umces.edu/seminarseries/seminar/52/bacterial_biogeography_in_aquatic_ecosystems_2008-03-27/ Thu, 27 Mar 2008 12:00:00 -0400 Regional, seasonal, and inter-annual variations of water quality, net O2 production, and pelagic-benthic coupling were examined in relation to changes in nutrient loading and climatic forcing for the Patuxent River estuary. Monthly rates of net biogeochemical production and physical transport of carbon, oxygen, and nutrients were calculated for six estuarine regions using a data-constrained salt- and water-balance model (box-model) and a time series of water quality and hydrologic data. Assuming fixed metabolic stoichiometry for O2, and carbon, we also derived estimates of particulate organic carbon (POC) sinking. Analyses of monthly mean rates for each estuarine volume revealed distinct regional and seasonal patterns in net O2 production, including spring peaks in surface layer rates and generally higher rates in the middle estuary than other regions. Rates of POC sinking, which also peaked during the spring bloom, were sufficient to support the majority of bottom layer nutrient regeneration and O2 consumption at annual time-scales. Computed rates of net O2 production and nutrient consumption in surface waters were generally enhanced by high river flow; however, muted effects of flow on bottom-layer respiration and nutrient regeneration suggest that much of the increased organic production in surface layers during high flow is transported to seaward regions. The box-modeling approach was also used to assess estuarine ecosystem responses to recent reductions in N and P loading from sewage treatment facilities under the variable climatic conditions of the last two decades. Reductions in nutrient concentrations, chlorophyll-a levels, and bottom layer O2 consumption rates in the upper estuary since 1990 are closely tied to reductions in point-source nutrient loading rates (by 40-60%). The absence of clear trends in water quality and net O2 production for the middle estuary appears to be attributable to persistently high diffuse-source nutrient loads, particularly during the high river flow conditions which characterized the mid- to late-1990s. Despite significant declines in the seaward transport of N and P from the upper to the lower estuary, chlorophyll-a concentrations, net O2 production, and turbidity have actually increased during this same time period. These surprising trends coincide with a trend of increasing net inputs of DIN from the Chesapeake Bay to the Patuxent, related to larger nutrient concentration decreases in the Patuxent relative to Chesapeake Bay. In addition, a contemporaneous reduction in grazing pressure on phytoplankton appears to be related to a top-down trophic cascade that has allowed algal biomass and productivity to increase, with total N concentrations remaining relatively constant. These analyses of water quality trends and ecosystem processes illustrate (1) the value of long-term monitoring data, (2) the need for regional scale nutrient management that includes integrated estuarine systems, and (3) the potential water quality impacts of altered coastal food-webs. http://ian.umces.edu/seminarseries/seminar/51/water_quality_responses_to_nutrient_loading_reductions_in_the_patuxent_river_estuary_ecological_and_climatic_controls_along_an_estuarine_gradient_2008-02-28/ http://ian.umces.edu/seminarseries/seminar/51/water_quality_responses_to_nutrient_loading_reductions_in_the_patuxent_river_estuary_ecological_and_climatic_controls_along_an_estuarine_gradient_2008-02-28/ Thu, 28 Feb 2008 12:00:00 -0500 To better understand the implications of anthropogenic climate change for three major Mid-Atlantic estuaries (Chesapeake Bay, Delaware Bay, and the Hudson River Estuary), we analyzed the regional output of seven global climate models. The simulation given by the average of the models was generally superior to individual models, which differed dramatically in their ability to simulate 20th-century climate. The model average had little bias in its mean temperature and precipitation and, except in the Lower Chesapeake Watershed, was able to capture the 20th-century temperature trend. Weaknesses in the model average were too much seasonality in temperature and precipitation, a shift in precipitation's summer maximum to spring and winter minimum to fall, interannual variability that was too high in temperature and too low in precipitation, and inability to capture the 20th-century precipitation increase. All models warmed over the 21st century under the six greenhouse gas scenarios considered, with an increase of 4.7 ± 2.0° C (model mean ± 1 standard deviation) for the A2 scenario (a medium-high emission scenario) over the Chesapeake Bay Watershed by 2070-2099. Precipitation projections had much weaker consensus, with a corresponding increase of 3 ± 12% for the A2 scenario, but in winter there was a more consistent increase of 8 ± 7%. The projected climate averaged over the four best-performing models was significantly cooler and wetter than the projected seven-model-average climate. Precipitation projections were within the range of interannual variability but temperature projections were not. The implied research needs are for improvements in precipitation projections and a better understanding of the impacts of warming on streamflow and estuarine ecology and biogeochemistry. http://ian.umces.edu/seminarseries/seminar/49/climate_forcing_of_mid_atlantic_estuaries_in_the_21st_century_2007-10-11/ http://ian.umces.edu/seminarseries/seminar/49/climate_forcing_of_mid_atlantic_estuaries_in_the_21st_century_2007-10-11/ Thu, 11 Oct 2007 12:00:00 -0400 Research in our laboratory encompasses both mechanistic and applied issues regarding the fate and effects of a range of chemical and biological stressors (pollutants) in the aquatic environment, from the Chesapeake Bay to tropical coral reefs. This seminar will focus on the projects pertinent to the Chesapeake Bay but also highlights some of the research that is being carried out on coral reef toxicology. To preempt this talk I would like to emphasize the words of one of the first well-known toxicologists; 'ALL substances are poisons, there is none which is not a poison, the right dose differentiates a poison from a remedy', Paraceleus (16th century). So although the concentration and the duration of exposure to a pollutant in the Bay is important, we must also consider how (if at all) pollutant(s) can be taken up by organism's, it's fate and ultimate effect. Further complicating these issues is the myriad of multiple pollutants currently in the Bay and confounding effects of other chemical, biological and physical stressors. This seminar will address issues of metabolism and effects of organic contaminants, with an emphasis on oxidative stress, genotoxicity and thyroid hormone disruption. Targeted pollutants include, flame retardants (BDEs), crude oil and chemical dispersants, proposed ballast water treatment biocides and human bacterial pathogens. Organisms under study include, various estuarine/freshwater fish and invertebrates, native versus non-native oysters and tropical coral and anemone species. http://ian.umces.edu/seminarseries/seminar/48/aquatic_toxicity_research_the_bay_and_beyond_2007-09-17/ http://ian.umces.edu/seminarseries/seminar/48/aquatic_toxicity_research_the_bay_and_beyond_2007-09-17/ Mon, 17 Sep 2007 12:00:00 -0400