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For the past several years, Chesapeake Bay scientists have collaborated with EcoCheck to forecast summer dissolved oxygen conditions, based on flow and nutrient loading conditions through May. The 2011 anoxia forecast is supported through research at Johns Hopkins University, Old Dominion University, UMCES-Horn Point Lab, and the Chesapeake Bay Program. This forecast uses the same basis as previous anoxia forecasts—nitrogen loads—but adds other elements that may provide a better understanding of anoxia in the mainstem Bay. The forecast was divided into early summer and late summer predictions because for the past several years there has been a noticeable change in anoxic volume following wind events in late June and early July. The early summer anoxia forecast predicts moderate to poor conditions, based on nitrogen loads from January to April as well as high flow in May.
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