This chapter provides an overview of the process of developing, producing, and releasing an ecological forecast, which is supported by statistical analysis and models that underpin forecasts (see Chapters 8 and 9). Areas discussed in this chapter include why you may consider conducting ecological forecasting, some of the essential elements of a forecasting program, and some of the challenges you may face.

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This year's drought led to lower than normal nutrient and sediment discharge into the Bay during the summer. With fewer sediments and nutrients entering the Bay, the health of the Bay may have been expected to improve, however, this was not the case for water clarity, harmful algal blooms, and fish kills. While dissolved oxygen in the mainstem was still poor this summer, the volume of oxygen depleted water was relatively small compared to the past 22 years.

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This newsletter describes forecasts of Chesapeake Bay 2007 summer ecological conditions. Forecasts of three important Bay health indicators are provided–dissolved oxygen (DO), harmful algal blooms (HABs), and changes in aquatic grass distribution.

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This newsletter describes why dissolved oxygen is an important indicator of ecosystem health. It focuses on dissolved oxygen in Chesapeake Bay and its tributaries and describes the factors that affect dissolved oxygen. Additionally, the management decisions and actions that are being taken to reduce the amount of low dissolved oxygen in the Bay are described.

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This newsletter summarizes the main findings and methods of a new initiative to forecast ecological conditions of Chesapeake Bay for the coming summer. This year’s forecast focuses on three important elements of the Bay’s health—dissolved oxygen (DO) in the Bay’s mainstem, harmful algal blooms (HABs) in the Potomac River, and changes in submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV) distribution.

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The often-rapid deposition of phytoplankton to sediments at the end of the spring phytoplankton bloom is an important component of benthic-pelagic coupling in temperate and high latitude estuaries and other aquatic systems. However, quantifying the flux is difficult, particularly in spatially heterogeneous environments.

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