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Chapter 7: Ecological forecasts: building a predictive capacity to guide management

This chapter provides an overview of the process of developing, producing, and releasing an ecological forecast, which is supported by statistical analysis and models that underpin forecasts (see Chapters 8 and 9). Areas discussed in this chapter include why you may consider conducting ecological forecasting, some of the essential elements of a forecasting program, and some of the challenges you may face. Forecasting dissolved oxygen conditions in Chesapeake Bay, which aims to pull together all the essential elements of an effective forecasting program, is used as a case study. Ecological forecasting in this chapter is addressed as an operational component of ecosystem management and not as an exercise in analysis and modeling.


Author(s)Jasinski DA, Longstaff BJ, and Wicks EC
IAN Author(s)David Jasinski, Ben Longstaff, Caroline Donovan, Bill Dennison, Jane Thomas, Jane Hawkey, Joanna Woerner
Editor(s)Longstaff BJ, Carruthers TJB, Dennison WC, Lookingbill TR, Hawkey JM, Thomas JE, Wicks EC, and Woerner JL
PublisherIAN Press
PlaceCambridge, MD
Journal / BookIntegrating And Applying Science: A Handbook For Effective Coastal Ecosystem Assessment : 97-110
TypePaper | Book Chapter
Link https://ian.umces.edu/publications/integrating-and-applying-science-a-handbook-for-effective-coastal-ecosystem-assessment/