Chapter 7: Ecological forecasts: building a predictive capacity to guide management
This chapter provides an overview of the process of developing, producing, and releasing an ecological forecast, which is supported by statistical analysis and models that underpin forecasts (see Chapters 8 and 9). Areas discussed in this chapter include why you may consider conducting ecological forecasting, some of the essential elements of a forecasting program, and some of the challenges you may face. Forecasting dissolved oxygen conditions in Chesapeake Bay, which aims to pull together all the essential elements of an effective forecasting program, is used as a case study. Ecological forecasting in this chapter is addressed as an operational component of ecosystem management and not as an exercise in analysis and modeling.