This chapter provides an overview of the process of developing, producing, and releasing an ecological forecast, which is supported by statistical analysis and models that underpin forecasts (see Chapters 8 and 9). Areas discussed in this chapter include why you may consider conducting ecological forecasting, some of the essential elements of a forecasting program, and some of the challenges you may face.

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One of the most important goals of a coastal assessment program is to increase the knowledge of individuals and agencies who make management decisions. Information must be presented in an easy-to-understand format and supported by quantitative analyses. Quantitative analyses often involve applying statistical techniques that are used to visualize, describe, and model data.

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Models can act as an interface among scientists, managers, and the public to build a shared understanding of the status and trends of coastal resources (Figure 9.1). Environmental models can be an effective way of synthesizing large quantities of environmental data. These models can assume a variety of forms and be used to address many different types of research questions.

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Owing to the complex interactions among climate, plants, cattle grazing, and land management practices, the impacts of climate change on cattle have been hard to predict. Predicting future grassland ecosystem functioning relies on understanding how changes in climate alter the quantity of forage produced, but also forage quality.

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Stable nitrogen isotopes ([delta]15N) in bioindicators are increasingly employed to identify nitrogen sources in many ecosystems and biological characteristics of the eastern oyster (Crassostrea virginica) make it an appropriate species for this purpose. To assess nitrogen isotopic fractionation associated with assimilation and baseline variations in oyster mantle, gill, and muscle tissue [delta]15N, manipulative fieldwork in Chesapeake Bay and corresponding modeling exercises were conducted.

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Currently, many states use precipitation information to regulate periodic closures of shellfish harvest areas based on a presumptive relationship between rainfall and bacteria concentration. We evaluate this relationship in four South Carolina estuaries and suggest new predictive models that integrate remote sensing precipitation data with additional environmental and climatic data.

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Parks and other protected lands can provide important source habitat and act as valuable dispersal corridors in urbanizing environments. However, most wetlands within protected areas are managed in isolation without consideration of the broader landscape connections. We studied the importance of wetland habitat connectivity and landscape context to bat activity in five National Parks along a gradient of increasing urbanization within the Mid-Atlantic United States.

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Vast areas of the globe's coastal zone have experienced significant declines in ecosystem health. Deteriorating water quality, loss and alteration of vital habitats, and reduced populations of fish and shellfish are some of the major changes recorded. Regardless of the differences between cultures, climate regions, and population pressures, integrated management and assessment is required to solve coastal environmental problems.

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Chesapeake Bay supports a diverse assemblage of marine and freshwater species of submersed aquatic vegetation (SAV) whose broad distributions are generally constrained by salinity. An annual aerial SAV monitoring program and a bi-monthly to monthly water quality monitoring program have been conducted throughout Chesapeake Bay since 1984. We performed an analysis of SAV abundance and up to 22 environmental variables potentially influencing SAV growth and abundance (1984-2006).

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We analyzed trends in a 23-year period of water quality and biotic data for Chesapeake Bay. Indicators were used to detect trends of improving and worsening environmental health in 15 regions and 70 segments of the bay and to assess the estuarine ecosystem's responses to reduced nutrient loading from point (i.e., sewage treatment facilities) and nonpoint (e.g., agricultural and urban land use) sources.

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