Chapter 4 discussed how selecting an appropriate communication product can affect an audience and persuade opinions. This chapter discusses how using another tool, an indicator (Figure 5.1), not only can persuade opinions, but also can be used to evaluate the health of an ecosystem.

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This chapter provides an overview of the process of developing, producing, and releasing an ecological forecast, which is supported by statistical analysis and models that underpin forecasts (see Chapters 8 and 9). Areas discussed in this chapter include why you may consider conducting ecological forecasting, some of the essential elements of a forecasting program, and some of the challenges you may face.

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Stable nitrogen isotopes ([delta]15N) in bioindicators are increasingly employed to identify nitrogen sources in many ecosystems and biological characteristics of the eastern oyster (Crassostrea virginica) make it an appropriate species for this purpose. To assess nitrogen isotopic fractionation associated with assimilation and baseline variations in oyster mantle, gill, and muscle tissue [delta]15N, manipulative fieldwork in Chesapeake Bay and corresponding modeling exercises were conducted.

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Vast areas of the globe's coastal zone have experienced significant declines in ecosystem health. Deteriorating water quality, loss and alteration of vital habitats, and reduced populations of fish and shellfish are some of the major changes recorded. Regardless of the differences between cultures, climate regions, and population pressures, integrated management and assessment is required to solve coastal environmental problems.

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Chesapeake Bay supports a diverse assemblage of marine and freshwater species of submersed aquatic vegetation (SAV) whose broad distributions are generally constrained by salinity. An annual aerial SAV monitoring program and a bi-monthly to monthly water quality monitoring program have been conducted throughout Chesapeake Bay since 1984. We performed an analysis of SAV abundance and up to 22 environmental variables potentially influencing SAV growth and abundance (1984-2006).

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We analyzed trends in a 23-year period of water quality and biotic data for Chesapeake Bay. Indicators were used to detect trends of improving and worsening environmental health in 15 regions and 70 segments of the bay and to assess the estuarine ecosystem's responses to reduced nutrient loading from point (i.e., sewage treatment facilities) and nonpoint (e.g., agricultural and urban land use) sources.

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Rock Creek Park (ROCR) is a forest and wetland oasis in the heart of Washington, D.C. A National Park Service natural resource condition assessment (NPS NRCA) was conducted using two synthetic frameworks: 1) an ecological monitoring framework, and 2) a habitat monitoring framework. Data metrics and thresholds were determined and monitoring data applied.

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Referring to both the dynamic nature of the barrier islands forming the coastal lagoons of Maryland’s Atlantic Ocean coastline and also the changing cultural landscape, Shifting Sands is a richly illustrated, multi-authored introduction to Assawoman Bay, Isle of Wight Bay, St. Martin River, Sinepuxent Bay, Newport Bay, and Chincoteague Bay.

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The Florida Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) is developing a new transparency standard for marine waters that will protect the seagrass species found throughout the state. The current transparency standard does not sufficiently protect seagrasses, and the new standard will help DEP identify waters in which transparency is too low for healthy seagrass beds.

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The central Kura River basin is a large river basin in the mountainous South Caucasus region of Eurasia. It contains important water resources for three countries—Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan—and has a combined population of some 17 million people. There are many threats to these shared water resources, including nutrient inputs, heavy metal pollution, and sediment erosion.

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