This newsletter was created in collaboration with the Chesapeake Bay Science and Technical Advisory Committee (STAC) to summarize the rational for the STAC Rising Water Temperatures workshop.

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Environmental monitoring programs generate multivariate time series for the assessment of ecosystem health. Recent developments in causal inference offer ways to translate these observational data into networks able to explain gains and losses in the trajectories of indicator variables. Here, we present a case study of this approach using surface water dissolved oxygen (DO) criteria attainment across the Chesapeake Bay.

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In the Chesapeake Bay, excess nitrogen (N) from both landscape and atmospheric sources has for decades fueled algal growth, disrupted aquatic ecosystems, and negatively impacted coastal economies. Since the 1980s, Chesapeake Bay Program partners have worked to implement a wide range of measures across the region—from the upgrading of wastewater treatment plants to implementation of farm-level best management practices—to reduce N fluxes to the Bay.

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Extensive efforts to adaptively manage nutrient pollution rely on Chesapeake Bay Program’s (Phase 6) Watershed Model, called Chesapeake Assessment Scenario Tool (CAST), which helps decision-makers plan and track implementation of Best Management Practices (BMPs). We describe mathematical characteristics of CAST and develop a constrained nonlinear BMP-subset model, software, and visualization framework.

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The Chesapeake Bay ecosystem is a national treasure that provides almost $100 billion annually of goods and services. The Chesapeake Bay Program (CBP), is one of the largest federal-state restoration partnerships in the United States and is underpinned by rigorous science. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has a pivotal role as a science provider for assessing ecosystem condition and response in the Chesapeake watershed.

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This report card provides a transparent, timely, and geographically detailed assessment of Chesapeake Bay. Since 2016, UMCES has engaged stakeholders throughout the watershed to transform the report card into an evaluation of the Chesapeake Watershed health. Watershed health includes traditional ecosystem indicators, but also social, economic, and cultural indicators. This is the second year the watershed has been scored, and four new indicators have been added.

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This newsletter summarizes the findings of a MEES course entitled “Developing an Environmental Justice Index for the Chesapeake Bay Watershed Report Card,” conducted in spring 2021. A video was also produced and can be found here: https://youtu.be/28siz8Eok4g

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This newsletter highlights synthesis outcomes from the Fall 2020 Economic Indicators workshop. Five new economic indicators were generated that will eventually be incorporated into future iterations of the Chesapeake Bay Report Card.

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Over the last six years, the Chesapeake Monitoring Cooperative (CMC) has connected monitoring initiatives across the region to enhance our understanding of the health of the Chesapeake Bay watershed. Read more about how CMC accomplished this in our 7 page achievement report below.

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A number of statistical approaches have been developed to quantify the overall trend in river water quality, but most approaches are not intended for reporting separate trends for different flow conditions. We propose an approach called FN2Q, which is an extension of the flow-normalization (FN) procedure of the well-established WRTDS (“Weighted Regressions on Time, Discharge, and Season”) method.

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